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Lower Shipments for Global 3D-Printer Market, But Shipments Up

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HP Inc. 3D printers

According to market-research firm Context, inflation and increasing demand for high-end 3D printers are propping up Industrial 3D printer revenue, but unit sales are falling across the globe.

The beginning of the third quarter saw  companies (Stratasys, 3D Systems, Desktop Metal, and Nano Dimension) jockeying to combine to create the world’s first over $1 billion (in revenues) 3D printing company.

However, in the first quarter, growth in product shipments varied across sectors as economies all over the world grappled with inflation and readied themselves for potential recessions. Context said that while unit shipment growth varied, system revenues were up nicely across the board thanks to inflationary price increases and the continuing shift in demand to higher-end metal 3D printers. 

Stratasys Acquisition Drama

“Three of the world’s largest 3D printing companies – Stratasys, 3D Systems, and Desktop Metal – were in the news in second-quarter 2023 with the competition between various companies to merge with or be acquired by Stratasys at the center of it all,” explained Chris Connery, Context’s head of global analysis. “As the third quarter began, Stratasys was set to merge with Desktop Metal, but continued offers from 3D Systems, and from nascent player Nano Dimension, leave the industry guessing.”

Mixed Results for First Quarter

For first-quarter 2023, global shipments of new additive manufacturing systems in the Industrial and Professional price classes were down year-over-year (YoY) by 15 percent and 30 percent, respectively, while the Midrange, Personal, and Kit&Hobby categories all saw shipment rise – up 18 percent, 34 percent, and 29 percent YoY, respectively.

Revenue from system shipments in most price classes increased (the exception being those in the Professional class), leading to overall total 3D-printer revenue growth of 15 percent for first-quarter 2023 versus first-quarter 2022. 

(Note that 3D-printer price classes are as follows: Industrial $100,000 and over; Mid-range $20,000–$100,000 – a category previously known as Design); Professional $2,500–$20,000; Personal  less-than $2,500; Kit&Hobby – less than $2,500 and require assembly by purchaser.)

Industrial 3D Printers

The first-quarter YoY fall in global shipments of Industrial 3D printers – the largest category accounting for 54 percent of total system revenues in the period – was mostly due to weaker sales of polymer systems (although sales of polymer material extrusion machines held up). This drop did not follow through to revenues, though, where an 11 percent YoY rise was driven by growing demand for higher-efficiency metal machines. 

While sales of almost all types of Industrial polymer printers fell, the sharpest drop was in the largest segment: vat photopolymerization. Shipments of these machines were down 33 percent with weakness seen across most geographies. In North America, for example, market leaders such as 3D Systems saw sales to certain dental markets slump as inflation led consumers to shift spending away from inessentials (such as cosmetic dental procedures) in favor of fuel and food. While the market in China is rebounding from a difficult end to 2022, market leader UnionTech saw weak sales of their higher-end vat photopolymer systems in this region as well, with weakness reported across many industrial sectors.

Industrial metal 3D printers fared better: revenues rose 25 percent YoY in first-quarter 2023 even though unit sales were down 8 percent. Powder-bed fusion (PBF) printers accounted for 77 percent of shipments of metal systems but were basically flat (down 1 percent YoY).

Although the number of sales was a challenge, the continued increase in demand for more productive (and larger) systems helped to push revenues for Industrial PBF systems up by 34 percent. Driving this revenue growth in the period were Velo3D and SLM Solutions (now part of Nikon), with each offering sought-after multi-laser, large build-volume (and higher-priced) machines.

Vendors seeing strong YoY unit shipment growth included GE Additive, allowing it to join Eplus3D and EOS as metal PBF unit market share leaders for the period.

Mid-range 3D Printers

Context says the 18 percent YoY growth in first-quarter unit shipments of Mid-range 3D printers – a price class dominated by polymer machines – was driven mostly by: (1) net-new products such as Formlabs polymer PBF Fuse line; and (2) strong domestic demand across multiple end-markets in China for UnionTech’s vat photopolymer DLP offerings.

Although cheaper polymer PBF machines are, in themselves, nothing new, Formlabs has been able to tap into newly discovered demand, super-accelerating growth: polymer PBF machines accounted for 17 percent of all shipments in the Midrange category in first-quarter 2023, compared to just 2 percent a year ago.

Context says Formlabs’ success has focused attention on this category, with the period seeing 3D Systems acquire Wematter, and Nexa3D expand its offerings by acquiring the XYZprinting product line focused on the technology.

Professional 3D Printers

Shipments of Professional 3D printers dropped significantly in first-quarter 2023 (down 30 percent YoY), although revenues held up a bit better (falling only 15 percent YoY), as the weighted pricing rose 21 percent to $7,271.

Context says the drop in demand affected all of the top-five vendors, but UltiMaker (which recently combined with MakerBot) remained the class leader in both unit shipments and system revenues.

Foreseeing the stagnation in this category, vendors like Formlabs had initially introduced new products — like low-end polymer PBF printers — into this Professional price-class with some success seen in the year-ago quarter. Demand in recent quarters has however moved to a slightly more advanced product, which, when combined with inflationary price increases, has shifted this low-end polymer PBF segment into the Midrange category, a phenomenon which also contributed to the YoY comparison results. This price-class has been dominated however by Material Extrusion and Vat Photopolymerization shipments with Powder Bed Fusion shipments – while accelerating – yet to make much of a dent in overall market share.

Context says that if shipments of polymer PBF systems are excluded from the figures for first-quarter 2023, shipments of core products in the category still fell by 28 percent (with Material Extrusion down 33 percent and Vat Photopolymer shipments down 18 percent), so it was a difficult quarter for vendors working in this price class regardless of how sales are measured.

Personal and Kit & HOBBY 3D Printers

Context reported that although there were excellent sales of lower-end, consumer-centric Personal and Kit&Hobby printers in first-quarter 2023, full-year growth expectations for the category remain subdued as these shipment increases were mostly due to improved supply-chain logistics and other factors than to new demand.

For instance, AnkerMake shipped huge numbers of its Personal machines in the period, but the demand was generated, and orders placed, during a super-successful Kickstarter campaign in 2022. One strong exception for the period was Bambu Lab. Great demand allowed the company to successfully move from crowd funding into mainstream commercialization; in fact, demand for Bambu Lab products was so strong it helped push Bambu Lab to the number-two global market share position in the quarter, surpassed only by Creality.

Outlook

“While much of the industry’s attention has recently been focused on Western company consolidation, vendors like China’s Farsoon have continued the trend in the Asia–Pacific region of going public by way of more traditional IPOs,”  said Context’s Chris Connery.

“While mergers, acquisitions, and public listings often dominate headlines, such actions do not typically drive demand or market growth in the near term. Separate from the potential industry consolidation, the prospects for 3D printing remain bright, with demand growing and accelerating, especially as many companies are managing to keep supply-chain challenges and re-shoring initiatives at top-of-mind while the inside-the-industry machinations play out around them,” Connery said.

Context also said that 3D printing continues to excel for prototyping, and there’s still ample room for growth in the areas of mass customization and low-volume production of complicated parts, but it’s volume mass production which has the strongest growth potential in the coming years.

For polymers, technologies such as vat photopolymerization and PBF are best poised to meet these mass production needs; whereas it’s PBF and binder-jetting technologies that are best positioned to accelerate metal AM into mainstream production. Indeed, Context says metal PBF is the leading technology in the Industrial market and is on track to see a five-year shipment compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 26 percent. Meanwhile, although forecasts predict that metal binder jetting will remain behind PBF, the projected CAGR through to 2027 for this technology is 30 percent.

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